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Announcing the Launch of iPadReviews.com

We’re announcing the launch of our new site – ipadreviews.com. This site will be the place to find the latest reviews, news, commentary and other information on Apple’s iPad.

Posted in Uncategorized.

Announcing Launch of MediaGadgetDaily

We just launched a new blog called mediagadgetdaily.com.   The blog will cover the burgeoning category of portable devices that fall between smartphones and netbooks designed specifically for media consumption (books, magazines, newspapers, mvoies, TV, music, etc). 

The launch of Amazon’s Kindle seems to have ignited the eReader category in the same way that Apple’s launch of the iPod blew open the MP3 player category.  We’ll see if Apple’s long-rumored “mediapad,” a large-screen iPod Touch-like device intended for reading, watching video, etc will steel the Kindle’s thunder.

Posted in movies, music, tech.

GM May Seek 1-for-100 Reverse Stock Split

Why would GM do this?  Because they know that based on the current total shares outstanding a share of GM should be heading quickly to $0.18 (from the current level of $1.85) given the massive dilution that will occur in any of the restructuring options currently facing them (why this isn’t reflected in the current share price is a complete enigma).

A 1-for-100 reverse split would take the share price up from $0.18 (where it should be trading right now) to $18.00, which is an  attractive price level (it would improve the marketability and liquidity of GM stock and may encourage interest and trading in the shares of GM…bla bla bla…). It can’t be that GM is aiming to take their share price up from $1.85 to $185.00.

This story was reported by AP on Yahoo.

Posted in business, investing, stocks. Tagged with , , , .

GM Overvalued at $1 Billion Market Cap

* Full disclosure: I own the May 2009 $1.00 puts

GM’s current share price gives it just over a $1 billion market value. Under both the GM proposal made earlier this week and the counterproposal put forth by GM bondholder yesterday, existing GM stockholders would be left with just 1% of the equity of the new GM. These proposals are intended help GM avoid filing for Chapter 11.

Given the above scenario it would appear that the best GM common holders can hope for is to retain a 1% stake in the company (the alternative being that they wind up with nothing in the event of a Chapter 11 filing). Therefore, the $1 billion market value for the outstanding common appears to imply that the post-restructured GM market cap will be worth roughly $100 billion (implying roughly $10 billion of net income). This simply is not feasible with a GM that will be dramatically smaller in terms of U.S. and global market share.

Posted in business, investing, stocks. Tagged with , , , , .

A Post from My iPod

Just testing out the new WordPress app. Pretty easy to use.

Posted in random musings, tech.

David Wright’s Opening Day Homer

Went to the Mets Citi Field opener on Monday. Was lucky enough to capture some video of David Wright’s game-tying 3-run blast to left field:

Posted in sports.

Amazon.com (AMZN) Valuation Defies Gravity

Amazon (AMZN) is up 21% since we argued that its shares were overvalued when compared to a range of tech and retail comparables.

At yesterday’s closing price, AMZN was trading at a shockingly high 18.9x EBITDA compared to an average of only 7.9x for the tech and retailer comparabales.  SEE ANALYIS BELOW

Once we get past this deep recession, Amazon is sure to be in an even stronger competitive positon in the retailing space, and will resume its strong revenue, earning and cash flow growth.  But, the same can be said of Google.  For some reason, analysis and the market is willing to look past the next 12-18 mo nths when it comes to Amazon, but not for other long-time market leaders.

**Full Disclosure: I own the AMZN Dec 40 Puts (ZQNXH.X)

Posted in business, investing, stocks, tech.

Amazon.com Still Overvalued (AMZN)

Even though it is off 57% from its 52-week high ($97.43), Amazon.com (AMZN) is still overvalued.  It is trading at a lofty 28x the average analyst estimate for 2009 earnings (a PE/Growth that’s 20% higher than its comps) and an even more outlandish 15.3x enterprise value to EBITDA (double its comps). SEE COMPARABLE ANALYSIS BELOW

Sure, Amazon is by far the dominant online retailer.  But, the consumer is getting crushed right now and will continue to hurt well into 2009.  This will put a signifant drag on the margin-improvement story that had driven much of Amazon’s run-up during 2007 and early 2008.

Buy Januray puts now.  We would recommend the Jan 30’s trading at $1.95 (ZQNMF.X)

AMZN comps

Posted in business, investing, stocks, tech.

Blodget Must Be Short Research in Motion (RIMM)

Henry Blodget must be short RIMM.  What other explanation can there be for his grossly distorted take on WSJ’s glowing review of the new BlackBerry Bold.

BlackBerry Bold 

Blodget sifted every negative fleck from Katherine Boehret’s review in order to concoct a blog post that would neatly fit his sensationalist, deceptive headline: “Mossberg Pees On BlackBerry Bold: Bulky, Heavy, Expensive”

First, Blodget chooses to ignore the critical point made by Boehret that the Bold was not intended to be an iPhone competitor (that’s left to RIMM’s forthcoming Storm, which will almost certainly be reviewed by Mossberg himself), and instead is designed to be an evolution of the BlackBerry 8800 series devices, which are popular with corporations because they focus on functionality over style.  This point, made by Boehert in paragraph two, places the entire review in a proper context.

Blodget, as any good yellow journalist would do, takes everything out of context.

Now, here are my takeways from Boehret’s review:

“The BlackBerry Bold has a bright, beautiful screen and one of the most comfortable keyboards I’ve used on a mobile device. It has a speedy processor that handles email, Web browsing and video playback with ease.”

“The Bold’s large size affords mobile extravagances like a keyboard I could use without looking down.”

“Emailing on the BlackBerry Bold was a breeze. I grew so fond of its keyboard…that I found myself touch typing without looking down after only three days of use.”

“The Bold opened Web addresses and videos with no problem, whether I was on AT&T’s 3G network or Wi-Fi in my home or office.”

“I found the BlackBerry Bold to be a huge asset for on-the-go productivity”

“Users won’t mind this mobile device’s large build and higher price because of its luxuriously comfortable features.”

“The Bold is definitely worth a look.”

Posted in business, investing, stocks, tech.

BlackBerry On Sale (RIMM)

RIMM was hit with two negative analyst calls yesterday and the stock traded off (down 8.6% on a day when the NASD was up 3.4%) as if it still carried a 40x multiple.  But it doesn’t.  At about $53 per share, RIMM is trading at 16x even the most conservative analyst estimates for FY2010 ($3.33 per share).  This, despite the fact that RIMM is still generally expected to deliver 40%+ revenue growth and 30%+ earnings growth next year.  And, let’s not forget that RIMM has more than $1.5 billion of cash on its balance sheet and virtually no debt.

Sure, RIMM is experiencing some delays in getting the Bold (AT&T) to market and is supposedly seeing less-then-stellar uptake on its new flip phone (T-Mobile) based on VERY early indications.  But, initial reviews of BlackBerry’s Storm (Verizon) touch-screen device have been surprisingly strong – even giving its touch-screen an edge over the iPhone’s.

Bottom line: RIMM just may be one of the most undervalued names out there right now.

Posted in business, investing, stocks.