Omniture (OMTR), the largest pure-play web analytics company, is incredibly overvalued at its current price of $34.50 per share.

This company is the dominant player in a great space - web traffic reporting and optimization tools (recently announced a smart acquisition of a company called Offermatica).  However, a quick, back-of-the-envelope analysis shows that OMTR is worth no more than $27 per share:

The company will do around $139.5 million of revenue (around 72% year-over-year growth) and $20.5 million of adjusted EBITDA this year.  Assuming they grow revenue 60% next year and then 50% in 2009, they will do about $335 million of revenue and $84 million of adjusted EBITDA (this assumes they can grow EBITDA margins from the mid-teens in 2007 to 25% in 2009).  Applying a 15x EBITDA multiple implies a $1.255 billion enterprise value and $1.4 billion equity value ($146 million of cash on hand, net of debt). With about 51 million shares outstanding, that implies a share price of $27.59.

I’d buy the Dec ‘07 $30 puts (MOQXF), currently trading at $1.80.

Crazy Prediction: Mark Cuban will purchase Imax Corp (IMAX) as a distribution play for his HDNet and film ventures.